Why exit poll is a critical indicator in UK's election process
1. Historically, exit poll is released around 10 pm on election night, when voting closes
The exit poll plays a crucial role in the UK's electoral process, offering an early indication of election outcomes. Released around 10 pm on election night, it provides immediate insights after voting closes, lifting the media silence mandated by British broadcasting rules. Funded by a consortium of BBC, Sky News, and ITV, and conducted by Ipsos since 1997, the exit poll intercepts voters as they leave polling stations, asking them to complete mock ballot papers. This method, covering over 130 polling stations, ensures a detailed and accurate seat projection.
Unlike prediction polls, which rely on voters' stated intentions, the exit poll reflects actual voting behavior, offering more precise predictions. Historically, it has been very accurate, with minimal deviations in recent elections. For instance, in 2019, it was off by only three seats for the Conservatives. However, there have been notable errors, such as in 1992, when it incorrectly predicted a hung parliament.
The exit poll's accuracy, while generally high, can face challenges in years with significant changes, such as new electoral boundaries in 2024. This complexity adds some uncertainty, but the poll remains a reliable early indicator of election outcomes. For those keen on immediate results, the 10 pm exit poll provides a valuable snapshot, while detailed results unfold through the night.
