Weight-loss market to see 16 new drugs by 2029, report estimates

The market for weight-loss treatments is set to see a surge of new competition, with 16 new drugs expected to enter the arena by 2029, challenging the current dominance of Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) and Eli Lilly (LLY.N), according to analysts from Morningstar and PitchBook.

A joint report released on Monday predicts that the obesity treatment market could grow to $200 billion by 2031. The new entrants are projected to capture about $70 billion of the GLP-1 market.

**WHY IT MATTERS**

The increasing popularity of Novo’s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound has spurred other companies to develop their own weight-loss treatments. Firms such as Amgen (AMGN.O) and Pfizer (PFE.N) are actively testing their drug candidates in clinical trials.

Amid rising criticism from lawmakers over the high costs of these medications, the influx of new competitors is expected to drive down prices as they compete for market share.

**BACKGROUND**

Potential new treatments are coming from companies including Boehringer Ingelheim, Zealand Pharma (ZELA.CO), Roche (ROG.S), Amgen, and Pfizer. Other contenders include Structure Therapeutics (GPCR.O), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX.O), and Altimmune (ALT.O), as well as next-generation options from Novo Nordisk and Lilly, pending successful clinical trials.

Analysts had previously forecasted the obesity market to reach $170 billion by 2031 but have revised their estimate upwards due to anticipated greater market penetration among diabetes patients. The report anticipates that by 2031, 41% of individuals with diabetes and nearly one-quarter of non-diabetic obesity patients will use a GLP-1 drug.

**WHAT TO EXPECT**

Significant acquisitions in the obesity sector are anticipated over the next 18 months, with major pharmaceutical companies likely to target smaller firms specializing in obesity treatments. Potential acquisition targets include Structure Therapeutics, Viking Therapeutics, and Altimmune. Private companies such as NodThera, Corteria, and Diasome also have a high probability of being acquired, according to PitchBook data.