2024 poised to become world's hottest on record, say EU scientists
1. Scientists say 2024 will also be first year in which Earth is over 1.5°C hotter than in 1850-1900 pre-industrial period
The European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) announced on Thursday that 2024 is "virtually certain" to surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record. This data release comes just before the UN COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, where countries are expected to negotiate a substantial increase in funding to combat climate change. However, the recent U.S. presidential election win by Donald Trump has lowered expectations for significant outcomes at the summit.
C3S reported that from January to October, global temperatures were so high that 2024 is expected to be the hottest year on record, barring a significant cooling trend in the final months. "The primary driver of this record-breaking year is climate change," said C3S Director Carlo Buontempo, explaining that warming is occurring across all continents and ocean basins, making temperature records increasingly common.
This year will also mark the first time the global temperature has exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900), a period that marked the beginning of large-scale fossil fuel use. Fossil fuel emissions, primarily from coal, oil, and gas, are the main contributors to global warming.
Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich, noted that while surpassing this temperature threshold is concerning, it is not unexpected. She urged governments at COP29 to adopt more aggressive policies to reduce carbon emissions, warning that the Paris Agreement targets are in jeopardy due to slow climate action.
The 2015 Paris Agreement sought to keep global warming under 1.5°C to avoid severe climate impacts. Although this target has not been reached yet, C3S anticipates that the world could breach it by 2030. "It’s just around the corner," Buontempo said, emphasizing that each increase in temperature intensifies extreme weather events.
In October alone, the impacts of climate change were seen in deadly flash floods in Spain, record wildfires in Peru, severe flooding in Bangladesh that destroyed over a million tons of rice, and Hurricane Milton in the U.S., whose intensity was worsened by climate change.
C3S maintains temperature records dating back to 1940, which are corroborated with global records extending to 1850.
