2024 is 'certain' to be hottest year on record: EU climate monitor
1. EU scientists say extraordinarily high temperatures are expected to persist into first few months of 2025
2024 Set to Be the Hottest Year on Record, Exceeding Critical Temperature Threshold
The year 2024 is "effectively certain" to become the hottest year on record, surpassing a crucial temperature threshold for avoiding dangerous global warming, according to Europe's climate monitor, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
“It is effectively certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record,” C3S stated on Monday. This follows data showing extraordinarily high temperatures that are predicted to continue into at least the early months of 2025.
The findings come just weeks after the United Nations reached a $300-billion deal aimed at addressing climate change — an agreement criticized by poorer nations for failing to meet the escalating costs of climate-related disasters.
Record-Breaking Temperatures
C3S data covering January to November confirms that 2024 will not only be the hottest year on record but also the first year where the global average temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). This surpasses the previous record set in 2023.
Widespread Extreme Weather
In 2024, extreme weather events have struck various regions worldwide:
- Severe drought affected Italy and South America.
- Deadly floods occurred in Nepal, Sudan, and Europe.
- Intense heatwaves in Mexico, Mali, and Saudi Arabia caused thousands of deaths.
- Cyclones devastated parts of the United States and the Philippines.
Scientific research attributes these disasters to human-induced climate change.
Recent Data and Future Outlook
November 2024 ranked as the second-warmest November on record, behind November 2023. Copernicus researcher Julien Nicolas noted that global temperatures remain near record highs and are likely to stay elevated for several months.
The primary driver of climate change is carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. While many governments have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, global CO₂ levels are expected to hit a record high in 2024.
The Impact of La Niña and El Niño
Scientists are watching for the potential return of the La Niña weather pattern, which cools ocean surface temperatures and may develop in 2025. While La Niña could temporarily lower global temperatures, it will not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer at Imperial College London, warned that even if 2025 is slightly cooler due to La Niña, extreme weather events will persist. “We will still face dangerous heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and tropical cyclones,” she said.
C3S maintains temperature records dating back to 1940, cross-referenced with global datasets extending to 1850.
